Dropping a piece of buttered toast will theoretically land butter-side down with a probability of 0 point 6 5 Some students decided to test this theory and dropped five pieces of buttered toast. All five landed butter-side down. One of the students claims that the next piece of buttered toast dropped will land butter-side up because it is due to happen. Is the student’s reasoning correct?

The probability of landing butter-side down is 0.65 on each drop; previous drops do not make the next result “due” to be butter-side up. Over many trials, the proportion landing butter-side down is expected to be close to 0.65, but a streak of five does not change the probability of the next drop. So the student’s reasoning is incorrect, and choice B gives the relevant long-run probability.

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