Unit Test — Unit test Answers

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9

A professional pool player claims that she sinks at least one ball in a pocket on 80% of her opening break shots. In a recent set of 20 games, she sunk at least one ball on her break shot in only 14 of the games. A simulation of 100 trials was conducted to see how unusual these most recent games are.

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A
The player’s true probability of sinking at least one ball on her break is 27%.
B
Another 100 simulated trials would show a much different outcome; therefore, we cannot draw any conclusions.
C
It is most likely that she would sink at least one ball during her break exactly 16 times.
D
There is about a 27% chance of her sinking at least one ball on her break 14 or fewer times in 20 games. This result is not unusual and there is no convincing evidence that her average is less than 80%.
11

Shawn is playing a game with a set of cards. Half of them are blue and the other half are yellow. In the game, the player guesses the color of the top card, looks at the card, and returns the card to the deck. The player continues to do this, shuffling the deck after each guess.

A
Yes, Shawn has guessed well so far, so it is clear that he cannot miss.
B
No, all of the cards have been blue so far, so the next one must also be blue.
C
Yes, half of the cards are yellow, so the fourth card should be yellow to compensate for the first three cards being blue.
D
No, the law of large numbers says that the proportion of yellow cards should approach the true probability after many trials.
16

The following two-way table shows the distribution of daily traffic and weather issues in a certain large city.

Question illustration
A
No, P(A) = P(B|A).
B
No, P(A) ≠ P(A|B).
C
Yes, P(A) = P(A|B).
D
Yes, P(A) ≠ P(B|A).

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