5
QuizMultiple Choice

Introduction to Probability

Question 5 • Probability and Statistics with Applications Honors Sem-2-FL-1210300 (2024-2025)

A fitness expert claims that 25% of adults do not know how to swim. To test this claim, an SRS of 20 adults is taken. Two of the adults do not know how to swim. A simulation of 100 trials is conducted based on the assumption that 25% is the true probability that an adult does not know how to swim.

Question illustration
Answer
A
The actual probability that an adult cannot swim is only 12%.
B
It is clear that exactly 5 out of 20 adults will be nonswimmers.
C
If we continued to take more samples of 10 adults, the center of the distribution would shift to 2.
D
There is about a 12% chance of 2 or fewer nonswimmers in a group of 20. This is not unusual and is not convincing evidence that the true probability that an adult cannot swim is less than 25%.
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